Honorary Senior Fellow

BSc MSc PhD

Email: atp14@medschl.cam.ac.uk

Background

Toby joined the Department of Public Health and Primary Care in 1991 as the statistical member of the Health and Lifestyle Survey team. Research interests of the team included the characterisation of diet from food frequency questionnaires using principal components. After a PhD in Southampton involving an evaluation of multilevel modelling methods for the analysis of family-clustered child mortality, Toby returned to the Department in 1996 as a consulting statistician and then primary care trial statistician. He was promoted to Senior Research Associate in 2002 and led the Statistical and Modelling Group of PCU until 2009. This included a period 2002-2006 working in the MRC Biostatistics Unit in the areas of cluster randomised trial design, and multivariate meta-analysis for complex interventions.

In 2009, Toby moved to take up a Readership in Medical Statistics at King’s College London, and was promoted to Chair in Medical Statistics at King’s College London in 2012. In 2016 he moved to take up a Chair in Medical Statistics and Clinical Trials at Imperial College London, where he heads the Clinical Trial Statistics group and the Statistical Advisory Service. He continues in multi-disciplinary research in trials intervening on lifestyle behaviours with the PCU, and in clinical trials principally along the route of lifestyles through weight change and diabetes and its retinal complications.

Toby has been a member of the NIHR Public Health Research Board since 2014, and a member of the NICE Public Health Advisory Committee and its predecessor Interventions Advisory Committee since 2008. In 2017 he became an expert advisor for the NICE Centre for Guidelines.

Publications

Sivaprasad S, Vasconcelos JC, Prevost AT et al. Clinical efficacy and safety of a light mask for prevention of dark adaption in treating and preventing progression of early diabetic macular oedema at 24 months (CLEOPATRA): a multicentre, phase 3, randomised controlled trial. Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology 2018;391.

Sivaprasad S, Prevost AT, Vasconcelos JC et al. Clinical efficacy of intravitreal aflibercept versus panretinal photocoagulation for best corrected visual acuity in patients with proliferative diabetic retinopathy at 52 weeks (CLARITY): a multicentre, single-blinded, randomised, controlled, phase 2b, non-inferiority trial. The Lancet 2017;389:2193-2203.

Booth H, Khan O, Prevost T, Reddy M, Dregan A, Charlton J, Ashworth M, Rudisill C, Littlejohns P, Gulliford MC. Incidence of type 2 diabetes after bariatric surgery: population-based matched cohort study. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinology 2014;2(12):963-8.

Simmons RK, Echouffo-Tcheugui JB, Sharp SJ, Sargeant LA, Williams KM, Prevost AT, Kinmonth AL, Wareham NJ, Griffin SJ. Screening for type 2 diabetes and population mortality over 10 years (ADDITION-Cambridge): a cluster-randomised controlled trial. The Lancet 2012;380(9855):1741-8.

Marteau TM, Mann E, Prevost AT, Vasconcelos JC, Kellar I, Sanderson S, Parker M, Griffin S, Sutton S, Kinmonth AL. Impact of an informed choice invitation on uptake of screening for diabetes in primary care (DICISION): a randomised trial. BMJ 2010;340:c2138

Paddison CAM, Eborall HC, Sutton S, French DP, Vasconcelos J, Prevost AT, Kinmonth AL, Griffin SJ. Are people with negative diabetes screening tests falsely reassured? A parallel group cohort study embedded in the ADDITION (Cambridge) randomised controlled trial. BMJ 2009;339:b4535

Amin R, Widmer B, Prevost AT, Schwarze P, Cooper J, Edge J, Marcovecchio L, Neil A, Dalton RN, Dunger DB. Risk of Microalbuminuria and progression to Macroalbuminuria in a cohort with childhood onset type 1 diabetes: prospective observational study. BMJ 2008;336:697-701

Eborall HC, Griffin SJ, Prevost AT, Kinmonth AL, French DP, Sutton S. Psychological Impact of Screening for Type 2 Diabetes: Controlled Trial and Comparative Study Embedded in the ADDITION (Cambridge) Randomised Controlled trial. BMJ 2007;335:486

Other journal publications with the Primary Care Unit (selected)
Crockett RA, King SE, Marteau TM, Prevost AT, Bignardi G, Roberts NW, Stubbs B, Hollands GJ, Jebb SA. Nutritional labelling for healthier food or non-alcoholic drink purchasing and consumption. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2018, Issue 2. Art. No.: CD009315.

Hollands GJ, French DP, Griffin SJ, Prevost AT, Sutton S, King S, Marteau TM. The impact of communicating genetic risks of disease on risk reducing health behaviour: systematic review with meta-analysis. BMJ 2016 Mar;352i1102.
Walter FM, Morris HC, Humphrys E, Hall PN, Prevost AT, Burrows N, Bradshaw L, Wilson EC, Norris P, Walls J, Johnson M, Kinmonth AL, Emery JD. Effect of adding a diagnostic aid to best practice to manage suspicious pigmented lesions in primary care: randomised controlled trial. BMJ 2012;345:e4110

Hollands GJ, Whitwell SC, Parker RA, Prescott NJ, Forbes A, Sanderson J, Mathew CG, Lewis CM, Watts S, Sutton S, Armstrong D, Kinmonth AL, Prevost AT, Marteau TM. Effect of communicating DNA based risk assessments for Crohn’s disease on smoking cessation: randomised controlled trial. BMJ 2012;345:e4708.

Kinmonth AL, Wareham NJ, Hardeman W, Sutton S, Prevost AT, Fanshawe T, Williams K, Ekelund U, Spiegelhalter D, Griffin SJ. Efficacy of a theory-based behavioural intervention to increase physical activity in an at-risk group in primary care (ProActive UK): a randomised trial. The Lancet 2008;371:41-48