Submitted by sjc313 on Tue, 12/05/2026 - 09:57
Researchers in the Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, — Lisa Pennells, Stephen Kaptoge, Spencer Keene, Wen Shi and Emanuele Di Angelantonio — have published a new paper in the European Heart Journal describing SCORE2‑HF, a tool designed to estimate heart failure (HF) risk in people without existing cardiovascular disease (CVD).
Heart failure is increasingly common and places a major burden on individuals and health systems. Earlier identification of those at higher risk could help prevent many cases. SCORE2‑HF provides estimates of a person’s likelihood of developing HF over the next 10 or 30 years.
The model incorporates routinely collected clinical data, including smoking status, blood pressure and blood pressure medication, body mass index, kidney function, and whether someone has type‑2 diabetes — including duration and level of control. Researchers calibrated the tool to reflect HF rates across four European risk regions (Low, Moderate, High and Very High), acknowledging substantial variation across Europe.
SCORE2‑HF was validated in large population cohorts from the UK, Norway and Estonia (over 1.3 million people), demonstrating strong predictive accuracy. Because it uses information readily available in GP settings, SCORE2‑HF can help clinicians identify adults over 40 who may benefit from early preventive measures and gives younger adults clearer long‑term risk insight.