Submitted by James Cantwell on Mon, 10/08/2026 - 09:05
The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) criteria used to decide who should be referred by GPs for further breast cancer risk assessment and specialist care misses up to 95% of women under 50 who will go on to develop the disease in the next 10 years, new research by researchers at the University of Cambridge and The Institute of Cancer Research, London, has found.
The study, published in the British Journal of Cancer, found that the current NICE criteria used in primary care could miss up to 95% of women under 50 who go on to develop breast cancer within 10 years. The research was conducted by investigators from the University of Cambridge and The Institute of Cancer Research, London.
Researchers compared existing NICE referral criteria, which are primarily based on family history, with the BOADICEA risk assessment model. BOADICEA combines multiple factors including family history, reproductive history, lifestyle and genetic information when estimating an individual's risk.
Analysis of data from more than 1,200 women found that the model identified eight times as many women who later developed breast cancer compared with current referral criteria. The study also highlighted that 73% of women under 50 who developed breast cancer within a decade had no family history of the disease.
Discussing the findings with ITV News, lead author Dr Juliet Usher-Smith said:
“We estimate that there's up to 1/4 of all women under the age of 50 who would be classified as high risk. The challenge is finding those women and not subjecting lots of women who don't need them to additionalscreening or medication. So that's where the research continues.”
Dr Usher-Smith said the findings demonstrate the need to improve how women at highest risk are identified so that opportunities for earlier intervention, screening and prevention are not missed.
The research has generated extensive national coverage across ITV News, BBC News, Sky News and 5 News, highlighting growing interest in more personalised approaches to cancer risk assessment and prevention.
NICE said it welcomes the findings but that the current evidence does not justify changes to its existing familial breast cancer guideline at this stage. The organisation added that it remains committed to reviewing new evidence as it emerges.
Read the ITV News report:
https://www.itv.com/news/2026-08-04/breast-cancer-referral-criteria-miss-95-of-women-under-50-who-are-high-risk